FONTANA: Drama on the speedway

by Dave Grayson

When the NASCAR Nextel Cup teams arrive at the California Speedway this weekend they are going to find themselves dealing with some very dramatic sets of numbers before the checkered flag falls on Sunday’s Sharp Aquos 500. This race is #25  on the NASCAR schedule and is the next to last event that will determine the 12 man line up for the NASCAR Nextel Cup Chase For The Championship.

There are nine drivers who will be hoping to secure a spot on that coveted roster by the September 9th deadline in Richmond-Virginia. The numbers from the California Speedway event are going to create dramatic story lines, aggressive race strategies and will play a huge role in the championship picture.

Mathematically speaking the top five drivers in the current points standings have already secured a berth in the Chase. The numbers have been very kind this year to Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Carl Edwards. These five drivers will be dealing with their own separate number. That number is ten. This year NASCAR made some adjustments to their Chase format. One of the key ones was the awarding of ten bonus points for each race won by a certified Chase driver. It’s these bonus points that will determine the final points position and the starting seed when the Chase begins on Sept ember16th.

With these five drivers already locked into the championship run they can shift their focus on making an aggressive run towards winning Sunday’s race and try to collect those all important points. This is especially good news for Jeff Gordon and Matt Kenseth. Both drivers have compiled very impressive personal stats at the California Speedway over the years.

The California Speedway numbers could also bring good fortune for drivers Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Burton, Kyle Busch and Clint Bowyer. These are the drivers who are currently ranked sixth through ninth in the Chase standings and all four of them have a better than good chance of securing their starting berths this Sunday. For Johnson a California Speedway finish of 37th or better puts him in the Chase.

Burton can do it with a top 35 finish and if Busch can finish 25th or better then he’s in the Chase a week early. Bowyer has two numerical sequences to work with this Sunday. First off if he can finish at least second in the race then he’s automatically makes the Chase. The other equation involves the number 196. If Bowyer can leave the California Speedway 196 points ahead of the driver 13th in the standings then that will also secure a Chase berth.

The number 196 will also loom large for drivers Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr and Kurt Busch. Like Bowyer, if this trio of drivers has a minimum 196 points over the driver in 13th then they are also in the Chase. It will also mean that the 12 man roster for the Chase will be secured at the California Speedway one week ahead of the expected schedule.

Mathematically speaking Dale Earnhardt Jr and Ryan Newman, 13th and 14th respectively in the standings, still has a chance to get into the top 12 although at this juncture it seems that their race cars are parked between a rock and a hard place. Going into next Sunday’s race Earnhardt is 158 points away from 12th in the standings. Despite that deficit there is one rather bizarre numerical sequence that could temporarily bump Kurt Busch out of that coveted 12th spot. If Earnhardt wins this Sunday’s Sharp Aquos 500, collects the five bonus points for leading the most laps and Kurt Busch finishes 43d then he could take over the bubble spot in the Chase standings.

This is not likely to happen. But what could happen is the scenario that has Earnhardt leaving the California Speedway with a top five finish compared to a mediocre finish, say around 25th, for Busch. It would still leave Earnhardt 13th in the standings but it would eat away enough of that 158 point deficit to where he would have a legitimate shot at stealing the 12th spot at the Richmond race.

If Earnhardt fails to make the Chase then the reason why can be stated in two words: Darlington Raceway. It was at the Darlington race last Spring where the Budweiser Chevrolet failed a NASCAR technical inspection and part of the penalty was the loss of 100 driver points.

Ryan Newman will start next Sunday’s race 14th in the standings and 175 points away from 12th and that means it’s do or die time for the Roger Penske owned team. Newman will need extremely strong finishes at both the California Speedway and Richmond to keep any Chase hopes alive. Even then he will be dependent upon the drivers in 12th and 13th experiencing bad racing luck to get into the championship run.

Earnhardt Jr and Newman will be two very interesting story lines at the California Speedway this weekend. You can expect both of them to do what’s  necessary to get to the front of the pack. Simply put: they have very little to lose now and everything in the NASCAR world to gain.

Finally there’s another set of numbers that always looms large at the California Speedway: fuel mileage. Miles per gallon has often become a factor in the past and it’s safe to expect more of the same this Sunday. The team that accurately calculates their fuel mileage, combined with a driver who’s good at conservation during green flag conditions, could actually wind up stealing the Sharp Aquos 500 this Sunday. Â